Oil Production in Russia Increases but Remains Below OPEC+ Quota

In October 2025, crude oil production in the Russian Federation rose to 9.41 million barrels per day, which is 43,000 barrels more than in September. At the same time, this volume continues to be 70,000 barrels lower than the established OPEC+ quota, which accounts for Moscow’s commitments to compensatory cuts following previous excess production limits.

This is reported by AgroReview

International Pressure and New Sanctions Against Russia’s Energy Sector

The Russian energy sector is facing increasing obstacles due to international pressure. In particular, new U.S. sanctions against leading Russian oil companies and attacks by Ukrainian drones on the aggressor’s infrastructure complicate exports and production. If the Kremlin cannot find new buyers for sanctioned oil producers and does not restore the operation of oil refineries, it will have to halt production at certain fields. This could lead to damage to wells and, consequently, to a long-term decline in the country’s production capacities.

Crude oil production in Russia increased slightly in October, reaching an average of 9.41 million barrels per day, which is 43,000 barrels more than in September. However, despite the increase, this figure remained 70,000 barrels below the OPEC+ quota, which includes commitments for compensatory cuts due to previous overproduction.

Geopolitical Factors: Actions by Australia, Japan, and India

Despite Australia’s official refusal to make direct purchases of Russian oil products following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country has imported over 3 million tons of Russian oil products through third countries since 2023. This import has been made possible by loopholes in the sanctions regime, which indirectly supports Russian oil production and provides additional revenue to the Kremlin’s budget.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, responding to U.S. sanctions against Rosneft, emphasized the importance of maintaining participation in projects such as Sakhalin-1 for the country’s energy security. At the same time, new U.S. sanctions will come into effect on November 21, after which cooperation with Rosneft and Lukoil must be terminated.

Indian state-owned refineries are actively reorienting their purchases to oil from the U.S. and Middle Eastern countries. In particular, two Indian refineries have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil through tenders in the spot market, including American WTI oil, Murban from Abu Dhabi, and Basra Medium.