Overview of War Risk Premiums: Trends in Insurance Rates in the Black Sea Region

War risk premiums (EWRI) for vessels entering Ukrainian deep-water ports have increased somewhat over the past month and a half. As of December 2025, they stand at 0.45–0.55% of the vessel’s value per voyage. Despite this, the current level remains significantly lower than the peak figures of 2023, when premiums reached 1.0–1.2%. The increase in rates reflects the heightened risks in the region, but their level is supported by the intervention of the Ukrainian government, as well as international insurance and reinsurance companies and specialized programs. Even in the event of new incidents in the Black Sea, rates are expected to remain relatively stable.

This is reported by AgroReview

Differences in Insurance Premiums Between Black Sea Ports

War risk premiums for Russian Black Sea ports have significantly increased: entries to Russian ports are now assessed at 0.65–0.80%, in many cases exceeding those for Ukrainian ports. Meanwhile, for the ports of Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey, the rates remain significantly lower. Specifically, for Constanta, Burgas, and Turkish ports, the increase in war risks is only 0.10–0.25%.

Insurance rates for Russian ports are rising the most dynamically, while EWRI for Constanta, Burgas, and Turkish ports remain discounted. This creates competitive advantages for long-distance routes and may influence the choice of ports for exports.

Forecast for Changes in Insurance Rates in the Region

The tense situation in the Black Sea and Danube regions in November and December could lead to a short-term but noticeable increase in insurance rates for cargo and vessels. The market remains extremely sensitive to changes: as risks rise, rates are immediately increased, and in the event of stabilization, underwriters quickly adjust the rates.

A moderate increase in cargo insurance rates is expected:

• Base scenario — an increase of 3–5%;
• Pessimistic scenario — an increase of 6–10% in the event of escalating geopolitical tensions.

This forecast is based on the experience of 2022–2024, when the blockade of the “grain corridor” led to an increase in the insurance of grain cargoes by at least 5%.

War risk premiums for vessel insurance are also trending upward:

• Base scenario — an increase of 2%;
• Pessimistic — by 3–5% or more if tensions do not subside.

“In 2023, such an increase in insurance rates was offset by a sharp rise in the cost of short freight transportation on the Danube–Constanta route, which reached $100/ton. Currently, these costs are around €10/ton, and Danube grain terminals are underloaded. Most likely, this time the increase in insurance will directly impact exporters and shipowners.”

Existing support programs, including the Unity Facility, AGRI-Ukraine, international underwriters (Lloyd’s, IUMI), and donor reinsurance, can play an important role in stabilizing the market. If they operate effectively, vessel insurance may remain at around 2% even in the face of high-risk levels in the region.

Monitoring the dynamics of war risk insurance premiums is critically important for exporters, shipowners, and all participants in the Black Sea logistics market. Timely analytics and forecasts allow for the adaptation of business strategies to changes in the market environment and minimize financial risks.