“Pesticide attack” on Trump. Will Ukraine seize the American destiny of the agricultural market of Europe

In response to Donald Trump’s customs threats, the EU began preparing restrictions on the import of products grown with the use of prohibited chemicals. This may be bad news for Ukrainian farmers, but at the same time it opens up new export opportunities.

This is reported by AgroReview

Trump began to “make America great again” due to conflicts with all traditional partners. Chaotic, inconsistent, but started. And Europe is preparing to resist these efforts of “trade bullying”.

In response to Trump’s threats to increase tariffs on European goods (primarily industrial ones), the EU decided to return to the idea of ​​restricting the import of agricultural products from the USA, which are grown with the use of toxic pesticides and other drugs containing “carcinogens, mutagens and endocrine disruptors”. The decision has not yet been made, but, as they say, it is already “on the table”.

As a “bonus” – the support of European farmers will add several political “points” to the Eurobureaucracy. And local farmers, it should be added, are recognized as the main “Eurosceptics” and critics of the EC. And all because of large volumes of imports into the EU. Because it is increasingly difficult for farmers to compete with cheap imports due to the “green course” of Brussels, which is aimed at “rehabilitating” the diet of Europeans and getting rid of “bad” pesticides.

“In the EU, a number of harmful substances are prohibited in agriculture, with which farmers in the USA still work, because the legislation does not prohibit them. Why do they use them? Because the difference in price. The EU is gradually switching to drugs of biological origin. And this is an increase in the price. Manufacturers in the USA mainly work with the traditional system protection, in the old way”. B).

That is, the decision on the restrictions of “inorganic” agricultural products on the EU market is “targeted” and solves several problems of Brussels at once, although it creates new ones, the main of which is the increase in prices for European consumers. After all, cheap agricultural imports “knock down” consumer inflation for European housewives. And that is why this decision has been discussed by the European community for many years, but it has not yet been adopted.

And now the question arises – if the restriction is finally introduced, will it affect only American agricultural products or all other producers? Of course, we are concerned about the fate of the record Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU and whether we will be able to eat the share of the American market in case of restrictions on imports from the USA.

“Bad” pesticides as a desired product

Despite the risks of price increases, Brussels must somehow respond to the American president. And other importers can be “hooked”. According to the Financial Times, the European Commission may take an appropriate decision on pesticides this week. Soybean supplies to the EU may suffer the most from this.

Restrictions will probably concern such agrochemicals banned in the EU as the herbicide paraquat, which is used in the cultivation of soybeans in the USA and other countries. The sources of the publication also call the fungicide propiconazole and neurotoxic insecticides “killing bees”.

“We are talking only about the most dangerous pesticides, and before making any decisions, an impact assessment will be carried out to protect competitiveness,” one of the European officials told the FT, adding that “we need coffee, mangoes and avocados”, which restrictions, most likely, will not be against.

Actually, coffee and tea are the most common products containing residues of pesticides prohibited in the EU: 38% of tea samples and 23% of coffee. They were found in almost a quarter of samples from India and 17% from China. Against this background, the question arises: if such imports pass through the strict European “filters”, then what do Ukrainians drink?

Pesticides themselves are a separate market.

“Pesticides, other drugs, and agrochemicals are all one market. By “pesticides” they often mean the market as a whole. The EU exports quite significant volumes of them to the USA. In 2023, the export volume amounted to $513 million. And in the opposite direction – from the USA to the EU – $438 million,” Anna Kana notes.

The largest consumers of European chemicals are Europeans. These are mainly France and Germany, which in 2023 imported $1.9 and $1.6 billion worth of agrochemicals from their EU neighbors, respectively. It is followed by Poland, Italy and Spain, which purchased more than $800 million worth of plant preparations in 2023.

Outside the EU, the largest importers of European pesticides are Great Britain ($750 million), Brazil ($650 million), the Russian Federation ($612 million) and the United States ($513 million). Moreover, the Russian Federation is increasing its purchase of drugs from the EU – for example, in 2021 they bought $467 million worth of agrochemicals. Sanctions do not apply to these deliveries. In 2023, Ukraine purchased European agrochemicals for $428 million.

As for exports from the USA, in 2023 the EU imported US agrochemicals worth $438 million. Moreover, the share of the USA in the European pesticide market is gradually growing, and the main importers are France, Belgium and the Netherlands – countries where the most “bad” pesticides are used (6-8 kilograms of pesticides can be “poured” per hectare of soybeans or corn there, which is significantly higher than the EU average).

Undesirable agrochemicals are used in the EU because they make it possible to cheaply protect a large part of the crop from pests and diseases, despite the fact that Europeans are publicly on the “frontier” of the fight for the “green course”. After all, there are certain loopholes that allow this to be done. But we will return to them a little later.

Who is “greener”: Ukraine or Europe?

As for Ukraine, we widely use pesticides in agricultural production, including those prohibited by the “green course”.

“For now, unfortunately, we use active substances that are prohibited in the European Union. Our largest agricultural producers are already implementing biological protection products, but a transition period is needed. Ukraine is moving towards the European Union. We are developing legislation in this direction,” Anna Kashiryna explains.

According to her, last year – in December – the European integration law on state regulation of the sphere of plant protection was already adopted, which will come into effect in 3 years.

It may seem that we are lagging behind Europe again. But Mrs. Kashiryna does not agree with this. After all, the EU made exceptions for its own farmers, which they successfully use, as follows from the statistics of exports and imports of chemical substances.

“Producers in the EU are granted special permits for the use of prohibited drugs. In Ukraine, an average of 3 kilograms of all pesticides are used per hectare, which is almost the lowest figure among European countries. This is for a season to grow a certain crop. In Europe, it can be twice as much. And this involves the use of prohibited substances,” she says.

That is, Ukrainian manufacturers are in principle less dependent on chemicals compared to other countries. But will it give us room for “maneuver” in case of introducing new restrictions?

The Ukrainian dimension of the problem

Ukraine received special conditions on the EU market as support and as a sign of European solidarity after the full-scale invasion of the Russian horde in 2022. And she used this opportunity to the fullest. Although these preferences, it seems, are not lifelong.

“According to the results of 2024, the EU remained the most important destination for the export of Ukrainian agro-food products: from $24.7 billion of agro-food exports, $12.8 billion (that’s 51.8%) were earned from exports to the EU. A significant share of the exported goods is made up of grain and oil products. If the EU introduces restrictions,” the head of the Committee on European Integration of the UKAB.

The expert also reminds us about the deadlines of the special trade regime for Ukraine.

“From January 1, 2025 to June 6, the current regime of autonomous trade preferences, which was introduced by the EU in June of last year, will still work,” she says.

Indeed, there are a number of countries that are constantly opposing Ukrainian agricultural imports. If we simultaneously lose the assistance regime and receive new requirements for pesticides, then we will get an extremely unpleasant “combo” – a double blow to our agricultural exports.

However, Ukrainian experts are moderately optimistic and claim that Ukrainian agricultural production can remain competitive even in such conditions. After all, the fate of organic agriculture is growing in Ukraine. In addition, the introduction of “green rules” is one of the requirements of European integration, and in any case, we have to go a step further step by step to fit into the new standards.

Moreover, despite the threat posed by the possible introduction of “pesticide” restrictions, we even have a chance to force the United States to fight for some agricultural crops in the European market, occupying their niche. Although, of course, all American agricultural exports to the EU are not to our liking.

“Ukraine is not such a large producer of soybeans as the USA to cover all the volumes of American supplies to the EU market. However, we will be able to reorient some part of our soybean exports in other directions to the European market in the event that possible restrictions on the use of plant protection products will not be applied to Ukrainian producers,” says Alexander Avramenko.

Be that as it may, for now both threats and possible advantages for Ukrainians in the event of the introduction of new restrictions are hypothetical.

“For now, these are just words – both regarding tariffs from the US and new restrictions from the EU. For now, this is for the future. There is no document that regulates this issue yet. Regarding the influence of the “trade war”, it will hit both sides. If the USA introduces tariffs, then Europe will lose approximately 3-4% “Agrarian exports. Only China, which is one of the world’s largest exporters of pesticides and agrochemicals, is winning,” Anna Kashiryna sums up.

Trade wars between the USA and the EU are, of course, a global problem that can affect entire markets. And especially for such a sensitive sector as the agricultural sector. The issue of pesticides is important for the soybean niche and some other crops. But this does not mean that it will only bring negative things to Ukraine.

Source: УНІАН