Recovery of Russian Refineries After Ukraine Attacks Will Last at Least Until Mid-2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks will continue to impact the operation of Russian oil refineries (refineries) for at least until mid-2026. According to IEA forecasts, by June next year, oil processing volumes at Russian refineries will remain at just under 5 million barrels per day, with further recovery expected only after this date — to a level of 5.4 million barrels per day.

This is reported by AgroReview

Decline in Exports and Russian Revenues

Due to the negative impact of drone attacks on Russian refineries, Russia has increased crude oil export volumes to 5.1 million barrels per day, the highest level since May 2023. However, despite the increase in crude oil supplies, the country’s export revenues have decreased to a three-month low of $13.4 billion. This is linked to a $440 million drop in refined product exports.

According to the IEA, in September, Russian fuel supplies to other countries fell to 2.4 million barrels per day — the lowest level in the last decade, except for April 2020, when the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was observed.

Import Dependence and Maritime Exports

According to estimates by Reuters, in September 2025, Russian refined product exports by sea decreased by 17.1% compared to August, reaching 7.58 million tons. Additionally, according to estimates from Ukrainian foreign intelligence, by the end of 2025, Russia could become dependent on fuel imports at a level of up to 60%.

According to the IEA, the consequences of Ukrainian UAV attacks will restrain oil processing at Russian refineries (refineries) for at least until mid-2026.