Russia Forced to Increase Discounts on Urals Oil Due to Sanctions and Market Changes

Russian Urals oil is currently being sold at a significant discount—nearly $15 per barrel compared to Brent oil, factoring in delivery and logistics costs. In comparison, at the beginning of the year, the difference was about $10 per barrel. Over the four weeks leading up to February 8, the average daily export of Urals was 3.33 million barrels, which is 540,000 barrels less than the peak level recorded before Christmas.

This is reported by AgroReview

India Reduces Purchases, While China Increases Imports

Currently, India is decreasing its purchases of Russian oil, while supplies to China have significantly increased in the first eight days of February—to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day. This has contributed to a reduction in the volume of Russian oil stored in floating storage.

“India has approached state-owned refiners to consider purchasing a larger quantity of crude oil from the U.S. and Venezuela. Indian refineries could potentially take in about 20 million tons of American oil per year (approximately 400,000 barrels per day).”

Oil Price Forecast: Trends and Expectations

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has updated its oil price forecast. For 2026, the expected average price of Brent oil has risen to $57.69 per barrel, while for 2027, an even lower figure of $53 per barrel is anticipated. In comparison, the average price in 2025 was $69 per barrel. In January 2026, the average spot price of Brent reached $67 per barrel, which is $4 higher than in December. However, the EIA forecasts that an increase in global production will lead to a buildup of global inventories, which in turn will cause a decrease in oil prices.