Russia Significantly Downgrades Economic Forecast for 2025-2026
The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation has released an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2026, significantly lowering the main expected indicators. The largest adjustment concerns GDP growth: now a growth of only 1% is forecasted for 2025 instead of the previously stated 2.5%, and for 2026 – 1.3% instead of 2.4%. Additionally, expectations regarding investment volumes have been downgraded: in 2026, instead of a growth of 3%, a decrease of 0.5% is now anticipated.
This is reported by AgroReview
Foreign Economic Situation and Oil Prices
The assessment of the foreign economic situation appears somewhat more optimistic: a surplus in foreign trade of goods is expected to reach $106.9 billion in 2025, significantly higher than the $86.8 billion forecasted in April. The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation also projects a stable Brent oil price of $70 per barrel for 2025-2027, although previously they had anticipated $72 for 2026-2027.
Budget Deficit and Military Spending
At the same time, it has become known that the Russian government will raise the planned federal budget deficit for 2025 for the second time this year. If a year ago the deficit was ₽1.2 trillion (0.5% of GDP), now this amount may increase to ₽5.74 trillion (2.6% of GDP). To cover the deficit, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation plans to increase the national debt by another ₽2.2 trillion, bringing the total net borrowing to ₽5.7 trillion.
According to information from Ukrainian foreign intelligence, the Russian government has already approved the draft federal budget for 2026-2028 with a deficit of $54.6 billion. At the same time, next year it is planned to reduce military spending in Russia for the first time since the onset of full-scale aggression against Ukraine. The expenditures will amount to ₽12.6 trillion ($150.5 billion), which is less than this year’s post-Soviet maximum of ₽13.5 trillion.
“According to Ukrainian foreign intelligence, the Russian government has approved the draft federal budget for 2026-2028 with a deficit of $54.6 billion.”