Russia’s Budget Deficit in 2026 Exceeded Annual Plan Amid Declining Energy Revenues
The federal budget of the Russian Federation for the first quarter of 2026 turned out to be record-deficit: from January to March, the shortfall reached 4.6 trillion rubles (approximately 59 billion dollars). This figure is nearly double that of the same period last year, when the deficit was 2 trillion rubles less.
This is reported by AgroReview
Budget Revenues and Expenditures and Reasons for the Increase in Deficit
According to preliminary estimates of budget execution by the Ministry of Finance of Russia, the deficit has already exceeded the annual plan set at 3.8 trillion rubles within the first three months of 2026. The main reason for this increase, according to the ministry, is “accelerated financing of expenditures.”
The total volume of expenditures reached 12.8 trillion rubles, which is 17% more than in the same period of 2025 (11 trillion rubles). In contrast, budget revenues fell to 8.3 trillion rubles, which is 8.2% less compared to last year.
Decline in Oil and Gas Revenues and Impact of External Factors
Oil and gas revenues saw the largest decline: in the first quarter, they amounted to only 1.4 trillion rubles – a decrease of 45.4% compared to 2025 (2.6 trillion). The Ministry of Finance of Russia explains this primarily by the drop in oil prices.
“In the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the decline in oil and gas revenues and their base amount is attributed “mainly to the decrease in oil prices.”
According to estimates by the Russian publication “RBK”, the shortfall in oil and gas revenues from January to March reached 569.7 billion rubles. After the start of the operation by the USA and Israel against Iran, the price of Russian oil sharply increased; however, these new prices have not yet affected budget revenues.
In addition to economic reasons, Ukraine’s strikes on key export ports of Russia have also impacted budget revenues. In March, attacks were intensified on the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk on the Baltic Sea, as well as on Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. According to data from the Finnish “Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air”, from March 23 to 30, oil and fuel shipments in Russian Baltic ports fell by 53% compared to the same period last year.