The Ukrainian Economy Will Only Recover to Pre-War Levels in Ten Years

The Financial Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine forecasts that the country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 will remain 20% lower compared to 2021. These forecasts do not take into account territories that are temporarily occupied or where hostilities are ongoing. According to estimates, achieving the pre-war GDP level is only possible by 2034.

This is reported by AgroReview

The main restraining factors for economic development remain security risks. Reportedly, the growth of real GDP in February 2025 was 0.7%, and for the first two months of the year, the growth rate was 1.1% compared to the same period last year. However, the Ukrainian economy is expected to slow down starting from the second quarter of 2024 due to a number of negative factors, including shelling of infrastructure, electricity shortages, and structural problems in the labor market.

Since the beginning of 2025, the situation has also been affected by a decrease in goods exports, which amounted to $6.3 billion, 7.4% lower compared to January-February 2024. It is projected that the overall growth of real GDP in 2025 will be approximately 2.7%, which is lower than the expected 3.6% in 2024.