In Ukraine, an increase in gasoline and diesel prices is forecasted due to rising oil prices and the weakening of the hryvnia
Wholesale fuel prices in Ukraine have increased by more than 3 hryvnias per liter. The main reasons for this are the significant rise in oil prices on global markets and the weakening of the national currency. In the coming weeks, this may lead to an increase in retail prices at gas stations.
This is reported by AgroReview
Rising Oil Prices and the Impact of the Dollar Exchange Rate
According to the director of the consulting group “A-95” Serhiy Kuyn, in the first two weeks of January, the global price of oil rose by 10% – from $60 to $66 per barrel. In recent days, the price has slightly decreased, and as of Friday morning, Brent crude was trading at around $63.55 per barrel.
At the same time, wholesale prices for diesel fuel in Ukraine have increased by approximately $60 per ton, which is about 2.5 hryvnias per liter. The devaluation of the hryvnia added over 80 kopecks per liter, as all petroleum products are imported. Thus, the total increase in the procurement cost of fuel has exceeded 3 hryvnias per liter.
“Therefore, the overall increase in quotes and the exchange rate has already led to an increase in the procurement cost of fuel by more than 3 UAH/l. On January 1, the market had already ‘swallowed’ a markup of 1.5-2.25 UAH/l, it cannot handle another 3 UAH. Thus, if nothing changes, in a few weeks we can expect a guaranteed increase of 2 UAH/l,” Kuyn predicted.
Current Situation with Fuel Supply and Quality
Serhiy Kuyn emphasized that there are currently no prerequisites for a fuel shortage at gas stations. In December 2025, Ukraine imported a record volume of diesel fuel – over 800 thousand tons with a monthly consumption of 550-600 thousand tons.
At the same time, he pointed out the issue of the frost resistance of diesel fuel. Some brands may not be suitable for the current cold weather conditions, however, gas station operators are responding promptly by adding appropriate additives to ensure the proper quality of the fuel.
According to Kuyn, the volumes of Arctic diesel, which withstands temperatures down to -32°C and below, are limited, as it is produced in small quantities, and the components have been stockpiled since summer.
Against the backdrop of prolonged power outages and decreasing air temperatures, the largest gas station networks are experiencing a significant increase in fuel demand. In particular, in the Kyiv region, sales have increased by 20-50% depending on the specific network.