What Conditions Will Favor the Return of Ukrainian Refugees to Their Homeland
The return of Ukrainian refugees largely depends not only on the end of hostilities but primarily on ensuring the restoration of territorial integrity, security guarantees, and favorable economic conditions. Experts from the Kyiv Security Forum, based on research from the Center for Economic Studies at Munich University (Germany), identified the main factors influencing citizens’ decisions to return home.
This is reported by AgroReview
Key Factors Influencing the Decision to Return
Over 2,500 Ukrainians temporarily residing in 30 European countries participated in the study. Analysts divided the main factors of return into separate components, allowing respondents to choose between different combinations of conditions.
The results showed that the end of the war or the form of a peace agreement has a minor impact on the decision to return. Instead, the determining factor is the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity as of 1991. This scenario increases the likelihood of return by 10.8 percentage points, even for those who left from non-occupied territories by Russia.
Security guarantees, including the potential accession of Ukraine to NATO, also have a significant impact, increasing the chances of return by 7.1 percentage points. Joining the European Union adds another 2.5 percentage points to the likelihood of return.
The Role of Economic and Security Conditions
Economic factors, such as the availability of high salaries or a 20% increase in income, raise the chance of return by 4.1 percentage points. Additional income contributes an extra 2.5 percentage points. At the same time, economic opportunities become significantly more attractive only when combined with security guarantees and the restoration of territorial integrity, as only stability and the absence of threats can stimulate mass return.
“It is important that the effect of economic factors is tripled when combined with the restoration of territorial integrity, as even high salaries and employment opportunities are not appealing in conditions of instability and the threat of new attacks.”
According to the study’s forecasts, if the loss of territories persists, there are no guarantees of peace, and the economic crisis and corruption continue, only 2.7% of refugees may return. However, in the case of restoring territorial integrity, obtaining security guarantees, and improving the economic situation, the likelihood of mass return could rise to 46.5%.