World Bank Forecasts Economic Growth for Ukraine After 2025
The World Bank has released an updated forecast for Ukraine’s economy, taking into account the likely continuation of hostilities in the country until the end of 2025. According to experts, even under such challenging conditions, a significant acceleration in economic growth is expected in 2026 due to a sharp increase in investments in production and infrastructure reconstruction.
This is reported by AgroReview
Forecast for Ukraine’s Economic Development
In its report “Global Economic Prospects,” the World Bank noted that discussions about a possible ceasefire began earlier this year, but a long-term resolution to the conflict remains uncertain. Economic growth in Ukraine is projected to increase from 2% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2026. In 2027, the growth rate may decrease to 4.5%, assuming that the active phase of hostilities concludes by the end of 2025, and the intensity of the conflict gradually diminishes thereafter.
“Economic growth in Ukraine is expected to rise from 2% in 2025 to 5.2% in 2026, and then decrease to 4.5% in 2027, assuming that the invasion continues until the end of 2025, and active hostilities subside thereafter. It is anticipated that shortages of labor, energy, and other resources will limit activity this year.”
Challenges and Risks for the Economy
Among the main factors affecting economic dynamics, the World Bank identifies a shortage of labor, energy, and other resources, which is likely to restrain business activity this year. A significant increase in investments in production and reconstruction processes is forecasted for 2026. At the same time, the recovery of exports is expected to remain limited due to the challenging situation in global markets and economic uncertainty.
The costs of reconstruction and recovery are estimated at $524 billion, nearly three times the volume of Ukraine’s GDP in 2024. In the absence of a sustainable peace agreement and with the prolongation or intensification of hostilities, the economic situation may worsen. The dependence of Ukraine on external financing, particularly support from the European Union and the United States, is also emphasized. Disruptions in the flow of external aid could significantly exacerbate economic risks for the country.