Fitch Forecasts Weakest Global GDP Growth Since 2009 Due to Trade Tariffs

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has significantly downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth in 2025 due to the escalation of the trade war and the introduction of new tariffs. According to the agency’s estimates, the level of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 may grow by less than 2%, which is the lowest figure since 2009, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic period.

This is reported by AgroReview

Fitch has lowered its estimate of global economic growth by 0.4 percentage points compared to this year’s forecast. Additionally, expectations for the economies of the United States and China have been reduced by 0.5 percentage points compared to the March forecasts. At the same time, it is expected that the annual growth of the U.S. economy will remain positive at 1.2% in 2025, although in the fourth quarter it may slow down to 0.4% compared to the previous year.

Forecasts for China and the Eurozone

According to Fitch, the growth of the Chinese economy in 2025 will continue to remain below 4%, which is consistent with forecasts for this year and the next. The economy of the European Union is expected to grow significantly slower and remain below 1% in 2025.

The agency also predicts that the tariff level between the U.S. and China will remain above 100%, but by 2026 it may gradually decrease to around 60%. This indicates prolonged tension in global trade, which negatively affects the world economy.