International Energy Agency Lowers Global Oil Demand Forecast Due to Trade Disputes

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. In its latest report, experts estimate the expected demand at 726,000 barrels per day, whereas a month ago the forecast was 1.031 million barrels. This means that analysts have lowered their expectations by 305,000 barrels per day, indicating a serious slowdown in global energy consumption.

This is reported by AgroReview

The reduction in the forecast is linked to the deteriorating prospects for the global economy due to the sudden escalation of trade tensions in early April, particularly due to conflicts between key economic players. As a result, the agency estimates global oil demand in 2025 to be at 103.54 million barrels per day.

Impact of the Trade War on Russia’s Oil Market

At the same time, the Russian economy is suffering losses due to a decline in oil exports, caused by the trade war between the US and China. According to data collected as of April 13, oil export flows from all Russian ports have decreased to 3.13 million barrels per day – the lowest level since February and approximately 320,000 barrels less than the recent peak. The value of crude oil shipments has also dropped to its lowest level since July 2023 – around $1.29 billion per week, which is 6% lower compared to the previous period.

This indicates a significant impact of trade conflicts on the global oil market and the Russian economy, which is increasingly losing revenue from energy exports amid international tensions.