Global Beef Market Faces Shortage: USA, Europe, and China Intensify Demand
The global beef market is experiencing a significant shortage, with the United States playing a key role once again. Amid a decline in domestic beef production, the USA is strengthening its position as the main buyer, opening new opportunities for exporters from MERCOSUR countries. As explained by economist and analyst Diego Ponti from AZ Group, a recovery in production levels in the USA is not expected until 2027 or 2028.
This is reported by AgroReview
USA: Steady Demand and New Opportunities for Exporters
According to Ponti, the USA remains a country with a structural beef deficit, importing over 2 million tons of product each year compared to exports of about 1.2 million tons. Domestic consumption reaches 13 million tons of carcass weight annually. Even with increased tariff quotas, the impact on the US domestic market is minimal, while this situation creates significant advantages for MERCOSUR exporters.
Argentina, along with other countries in the bloc, aims to increase the quota of 20,000 tons with a preferential tariff, leveraging favorable bilateral cooperation and the US demand for additional beef volumes.
“The United States is not flooded with imported meat. Argentina will not replace Brazil, and domestic prices will not fall as a result.”
The price difference remains a significant incentive for trade: while the price of a steer at the fourth grade in the USA reached $8, in MERCOSUR countries it fluctuates between $4.40 and $5 or higher. This allows exporters to profit even outside of quotas.
European Market and Asian Giants: New Challenges and Record Prices
The European market is showing a recovery in demand for beef, confirmed by a 50% increase in export prices following the Anuga exhibition in Germany. Environmental policies and restrictions on domestic production have led to shortages, causing the Hilton quota price to rise to $19,000 per ton compared to $12,000–$13,000 previously. Beef is regaining its position in the diets of Europeans, especially after the failure of synthetic meat in the market.
Among other important market players, Ponti highlights Israel, which is integrating its meat processing industry, requiring supplies of forequarters. This facilitates optimal distribution of other products across various markets and supports price stability. Israel remains a major consumer, impacting the supply balance.
In China, a price boom continues: in September, the volume of imports exceeded 300,000 tons. Demand is high for both industrial beef and premium cuts, linked to the growth of the middle class and the popularity of red meat. At the same time, experts warn that China’s trade policy remains unpredictable, and new tariffs or quotas may be introduced following international inspections in November.
Prolonged Period of High Demand and Stable Prices
Ponti emphasizes that the recovery of the cattle herd in the USA will occur slowly, maintaining high demand for imports at least until 2027–2028. For exporters from the Southern Cone countries, this means stability and new opportunities for development. Beef from this region will remain competitive and in demand in the global market.
Overall, the expert notes that the fundamental indicators of the international beef market remain strong: producers are recording record prices in US dollars, and beef is establishing itself globally as a staple product.