Global Food Prices Expected to Decrease in 2025-2026 — World Bank Forecast
The global food market is showing a trend of declining prices, which will continue for at least the next two years. According to the World Bank’s forecasts, the average price of staple food products in the global market will decrease by 6% in 2025 and by another 0.3% in 2026. In 2027, the situation will stabilize, and price fluctuations for grains, oil, flour, and other products will not exceed 1–2% compared to the previous year.
This is reported by AgroReview
Main Reasons for the Decrease in Food Prices
According to the World Bank’s analysis, rice prices reached their lowest level since early 2017 in October of this year. This is attributed to subdued import demand amid a record harvest of this crop and an increase in stocks. In particular, exporting countries such as India, Pakistan, Thailand, the USA, and Vietnam have increased their rice stocks by 5% compared to last year, and India has lifted export restrictions. The surplus supply has further contributed to the decrease in product prices.
Wheat prices are also expected to decline in global markets. It is estimated that wheat production will increase by 7% in 2025, followed by an additional 4% growth each year in 2026 and 2027. This could positively impact prices for bread and bakery products for consumers.
Price Dynamics for Key Products
Global corn prices are expected to rise by 4% in 2025, followed by a decrease in 2026, and then a slight increase again in 2027. A record level of corn production is anticipated for the 2025-2026 season — 5% higher compared to the previous period. However, due to increased consumption and low initial stocks, the overall supply is expected to only slightly exceed demand.
“Global corn production is expected to increase by 5% to a record level in the 2025-2026 season, but considering the rise in consumption and low initial stocks, the overall supply is forecasted to only slightly exceed demand.”
Soybean prices are also expected to decrease this year due to record production volumes, but costs will stabilize in 2026-2027. Meanwhile, prices for other food products fell by 6% in the third quarter of 2025 compared to 2024. This was made possible by a drop in prices for fruits and sugar, which outweighed the increase in beef prices.
Analysts estimate that global sugar prices will drop by 15% in 2025 compared to 2024. An additional decrease of 3% is expected in 2026 due to production exceeding consumption, and prices will stabilize in 2027.
In contrast, the beef market in the USA, a key player in global beef and poultry trade, has seen prices increase by 2% quarterly and by 9% year-on-year. This is due to a reduction in cattle herds to the lowest level since 1951. However, price stabilization is expected in 2026-2027.
By the end of 2025, coffee prices are expected to rise: arabica prices will increase by 50% compared to 2024. However, a decrease of 13% is anticipated in 2026, followed by another 5% drop in 2027 due to increased production. Robusta prices will also decline — expected to fall by 2% in 2026, with another 2% decrease projected for 2027.
The tea market is forecasted to see a price decrease of 5% in 2025 due to increased production in South Asia and East Africa. Prices for tea are expected to rise by approximately 2% each year during 2026-2027.